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Case Study - Swaziland-Based Client, Mr. G

7/19/2016

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Four Strategic Moves To Leverage USD 20,000 For A Transportation Contract To Be Worth Approximately USD 89.280 million

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​Swaziland-based Client’s Problem or Inquiry


After about six months from our initial conversation via email, Skype and WhatsApp, our Swaziland-based client, Mr. G, had requested a project loan in the amount of approximately USD 1.8 million, terms 3 to 5 years, fixed interest rate from 9 to 16%, with no pre-payment penalty (“Transporter”).

Use of funds: Purchase of eight new trailer trucks to fulfill the Transportation Contract (“Contract”) with Investments Company (“Company”).  The Company sells timber products located in the Kingdom of Swaziland to its customers at various locations throughout the Republic of South Africa.

Transportation Agreement/Contract: Initial term is five years and with a renewable indefinitely option; 36 Horse & Trailer trucks, INYALA Truck 4X4 - 74745 (“Truck”).  Company will pay Transporter approximately USD 41,333 per truck per month (“Contract”).  The potential monetary value of this Contract is USD 41,333 X 36 trucks X 60 months.

Learning more facts from Mr. G via tel-cc and subsequent follow-up through Skype-cc


Strategic Move 1:  After analyzing, verifying and confirming all facts from Mr. G’s business plan proposal, DAJK has advised Mr. G to request the Draft Contract with the Company first.  This approach will not only mitigate his capital risk in paying for a loan’s cost without a contract, but it also elevates Mr. G to a better position when he engages with the banker, lender or investor.

A few months later, with diligent work, Mr. G, has been awarded the Transportation Contract.  He has 45 days to firm this Contract by providing eight trucks within first six months.

Through further research, DAJK learned each brand-new truck costs approximately USD 223,000 and Mr. G has limited capital; it’s about USD 20,000.

This is a good problem to have!  Now what?
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Potential Revenue of This Contract


The Contract with the Company will generate gross revenue of approximately USD 41,333 per truck per month.

In the initial six months, it requires only eight trucks; therefore, eight trucks will generate approximate gross revenue of USD 1,983,984.

In the first year, this contract is potentially worth USD 3.968 million. His profit margin is approximately 10 percent or USD 396,800.

The Contract is for five years, or 60 months, with 36 trucks: USD 41,333 X 36 X 60 = USD 89.280 million or USD 17.856 per annum.

Mr. G’s projected annual net profit in five years is USD 89.29 X 10% = USD 8.929 million or USD 1.785 per annum.

This is a very encouraging and exciting fact! Now what?
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Recommendation/Solution


There are many ways to solve this problem; however, our objective is not only to ensure that Mr. G can learn the process so that he can resolve his future financial or investment problem, but also that it is at the least cost to Mr. G as well. (Use leveraging.)

Strategic Move 2:  After DAJK analyzed this Contract, we discovered the possibility of resolving it with Mr. G’s local commercial banks.  We recommended Mr. G engage and discuss the issue with all interested commercial banks.  Finally, The First National Bank, Manzini Branch (“Bank”), sent him the Letter of Approval of his loan request for the acquisition of eight trucks.

We have consulted with and instructed Mr. G in gathering some essential documents and guided him in what to request from this Bank, and how.   A few weeks later, this Bank provided him a term sheet for USD 1.6 million on the condition Mr. G is required to contribute USD 100,000 within 14 days at closing.

Please note Mr. G has no access to USD 100,000 at this time.  What would he do?

Strategic Move 3:  DAJK further analyzed and advised Mr. G in a couple intermediate steps.  They must be the most economical, and the lowest risk.  First, we advised Mr. G to negotiate with the Company that awarded him this Contract for a minimum of trucks in next six months.  The Company agreed on a minimum of four trucks in six months, then an additional four trucks can be amended in the next six months.

This is very encouraging news!

Strategic Move 4: Our next advice was to negotiate with the truck manufacturers who would agree to provide Mr. G with four trucks with a lease option to purchase.  Mr. G talked to four truck manufacturers/sellers.  Finally, two truck manufacturers offered him four trucks with a lease option to purchase within 12 months.  However, they need Mr. G’s deposits of approximately USD 7750 per truck for installing a security system on these four trucks.  Also, the truck’s lessor requires USD 1500 to be set aside for tire repair and replacement every four months.  Therefore, Mr. G’s lease cost for four trucks per month is approximately USD 9250 X 4 = USD 37,000.

Now Mr. G has reduced his required amount from USD 1.6 million to $37,000.  This is an exceptional reduction and manageable amount for a potential awarded Contract of USD 17.856 million per annum!
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Closing Strategy 

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Our next advice was to negotiate with Mr. G’s Bank for a short-term personal loan and private investor for USD 37,000, term of three months, no pre-payment penalty.  This short-term loan of USD 37,000 will be a deposit to one of the truck manufacturers who has agreed on supplying four trucks with the option to purchase and four more within six months. Mr. G has satisfied the Company’s requirements.
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Learned Lessons


From Mr. G:
  • Mr. G has leveraged his own USD 20,000 for the potential contract USD 89.3 million.
  • Mr. G has leveraged a power of networking, combining with internet’s application such email, Skype and Whatsapp.
  • M. G has created approximately 100 employee and contribute tax revenue to his community
  • Mr. G gains our trust and become our strategic partner in the USA.

From DAJK Inc.
  • Our risk is 100% if we cannot help Mr. G satisfying his awarded contract.  It is paid off this time.
  • More business opportunity:  Result of this experience, Mr. G has referred to DAJK another larger development/infrastructure project approximately USD 6.8 Billion located in South Africa.  It could be something or it could be nothing.  It is still too early to determine.
  • DAJK would not know what project or who will show up.  The more we dedicate and commit to our client’s interest first, the luckier we are. 
  • DAJK also gains a trust from Mr. G who now is our strategic partner in the Kingdom Swaziland and surrounding countries.  Mr. G is our valuable and strategic partner for DAJK.
 
From Marketing’s perspective

We invested approximately USD 6000 for 2 digital market systems and countless hours learning, tweaking and implement them.  There were numerous mistakes and missteps along the ways.  We did not know for certain whether or not it would work.  It was a leap of faith at that point.

There were numerous prospect leads.  We lost count; but it’s certainly more than 100 prospect leads.  We have treated every lead as an opportunity until our fact finding and due diligence results prove us otherwise.

At that time (Aug 2015), our company’s market is budgeted approximately USD 100 per month.  Our initial contact with Mr. G, it’s about 8 months marketing expenditure or USD 800.

Our estimated ROI is approximately 143%. 

Its lifetime client acquisition is definitely PRICELESS!
 


​If you are the business owner, investor, entrepreneur who has a project, business plan or investment inquiry, please sign-in for free 30-minute confidential consultation.

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What is One of the Key Matrix in Net Lease Will Minimize Your Capital Risk?

7/10/2016

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Know your tenant’s company profile and its ratings before you decide to invest (Tenant is who pays and guarantees the lease for you)

One of our criteria selection for net lease commercial real estate investment (NNN CRE) is very carefully select the right tenant.  In fact, it is also one of the best way to mitigate your risk as well.
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​Our typical selected tenant is Dollar General, you can find out this company profile as follow:
Dollar General Corporation is a United States chain of variety stores headquartered in Goodlettsville, Tennessee.  As of January 2015, Dollar General operated over 11,500 stores in 40 U.S. states.

The company acquired the 280 stores of the P.N. Hirsh Division of Interco, Inc. (now Heritage Home Group) in 1983, and in 1985 added 206 stores and a warehouse from Eagle Family Discount Stores, also from Interco, Inc.  In recent years, the chain has started constructing more stand-alone stores, typically in areas not served by another general-merchandise retailer. In some cases, stores are within a few city blocks of each other.

Dollar General offers both name brand and generic merchandise — including off-brand goods and closeouts of name-brand items — in the same store, often on the same shelf. Although it has the word “dollar” in the name, Dollar General is not a dollar store. Most of its products are priced at more than $1.00. However, goods are usually sold at set price points the range of 50 to 60 dollars, not counting phone cards and loadable store gift cards.

Dollar General often serves communities that are too small for Walmarts (although many locations are in relatively close driving distance to a Walmart store or in the same communities that Walmart is located). It competes in the dollar store format with national chains Family Dollar and Dollar Tree, regional chains such as Fred’s in the southeast, and numerous independently owned stores.
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Since 2000, Dollar General has experimented with stores that carry a greater selection of grocery items. These stores, (similar to the Walmart Supercenter, but much smaller), operate under the name “Dollar General Market”.
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Formerly called:  J.L. Turner and Son Wholesale

Type:  Public

Traded as:  NYSE: DG S&P 500 Component

Industry:  Discount retailer

Founded:  1939 in Scottsville, KY

Founders:  J.L. Turner Cal Turner Sr.

Headquarters:  Goodlettsville, Tennessee

Number of locations:  11,500+ (2014)

Areas served:  Contiguous United States except for the Northwest, North Dakota and Maine

Key people:  Richard W. Dreiling (Chairman & CEO) and David M. Tehle (Executive Vice President & CFO)

Products:  General Merchandise, Grocery, Photofinishing

Revenue:  $16.022 billion (2013)

Operating income:  $1.655 billion (2013)

Net income:  $952.7 million (2013)

Total assets:  $10.367 billion (2013)

Divisions:  Dollar General Market

Website:  Dollar General

​The dollar store chain is gearing up for heated competition after losing its bid to buy Family Dollar in January, which will instead merge with Dollar Tree and usurp Dollar General of its title as the biggest dollar store company in the country.

As part of its efforts to compete, Dollar General said it will open approximately 730 new stores in 2015, bolstering its current footprint of 11,789 stores across 40 states. To compare, Dollar Tree will have approximately 13,000 stores after it combines with Family Dollar.

In the quarter, Dollar General said same-store sales climbed 4.9%, driven by strong growth across food and tobacco, as well as increased customer traffic and average transaction size. Total revenue rose 9.9% to $4.94 billion, just missing analyst estimates of $4.95 billion.

The company revealed plans to return capital to shareholders through a $1 billion share repurchase program, plus the initiation of a quarterly dividend of 22 cents per share.

Net income rose to $355 million, or $1.17 per share, compared to $322 million, or $1.01 per share, a year ago. This was in line with the consensus call for $1.17 per share.

For 2015, the company is projecting per-share earnings of $3.85 to $3.95 and revenue growth of 8 to 9%. Analysts had forecast $3.99 per share in earnings and 9% revenue growth.

Shares are up 20% over the last 12 months and rose 2% to $73.15 in premarket trading.
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​Tenant Credit Ratings:  Moody’s and Standard & Poors 2Q16
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This data is for general information purposes only.  DAJK cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of this information. All parties should verify details and ratings independently.

If you would like to invest in net lease commercial real estate (NNN CRE), please contact us.

If you do not see what you like, please send me your ‘wish list’ with specific investment criteria, we will locate and match your investment wish list.

If you would like to learn more how to invest in net lease commercial real estate in USA, you can discover more at NNN CRE USA.

PROCEDURE:  When you select what NNN CRE(s) you are interested, please send me your Letter of Intent (“LOI”) and Proof of fund (“POF”) to engage with the Seller.  The closing time frame is from 30 to 90 days at this point if the Seller accepts our offer.  The escrow instructions will be provided for wiring of your investment funds once the Sale and Purchase Agreement is executed.  Please note your POF can be a Bank Comfort Letter (“BCL”) from Tier 1 bank or a copy of your deposit with First American Title.

Please note our escrow service is with First American Title,

Website: http://www.firstam.com/title/commercial/about/index.html

​
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IoT Connected Devices Expected to Surpass Mobile Phones by 2018

7/7/2016

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The report projects growth from 22 to 27 percent each year for the next 5 years for a collective 15.7 billion devices by 2021
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​International telecommunications network operator, Ericsson, released their Mobility Report around the future of mobile recently with a bunch of interesting data around the future of telecommunications and mobile.
 
The surprise star of the report is not mobile phones though—although it will continue to grow, especially in emerging markets where it hasn’t reached saturation like it has in the U.S.—it’s the Internet Of Things (IoT), which is projected to surpass mobile phones by 2018 according to Ericsson.

​In the next 5 years, Ericsson projects that the PC/Laptop/Tablet, mobile phone and fixed phones devices will remain relatively flat in growth, with the highest growth at 3 percent for mobile phones. Though for IoT devices, the report projects growth from 22 to 27 percent each year for the next 5 years for a collective 15.7 billion devices by 2021.
 
This includes cellular and noncellular (having an always-connected mobile connection vs. a WiFi connection) IoT devices. Ericsson believes the bulk of devices, 14.2 billion, will remain noncellular, compared to 1.5 billion cellular IoT devices in 2021. For comparison, Ericsson projects 8.6 billion mobile phone devices in the same year, up from the current 7.1 billion of today.
 
The report also contains a lot of global mobile data and some really nerdy network information around global networks, microweather, streaming and spectrum analysis if you want to dive deeper into the telecommunications industry.
 
Source:  Ericsson
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Crude Oil Market Update 705216

7/5/2016

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•    Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) requested $2 billion from Saudi Aramco as part of the breakup of their joint venture Motiva Enterprises. Negotiations will be difficult, Reuters reports, but the breakup is expected to be completed in October.

•    Petrobras has announced its decision to put nine small, shallow-water oil fields up for sale, in an effort to reduce its $12 billion pile of debt. But a source told Reuters that “the fields are junk” and will require substantial investment. 

•    Chevron (NYSE: CVX), ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) and their partners have agreed to move forward on a $36.8 billion expansion of the Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan. The expansion could add roughly 200,000 barrels per day of output beginning in 2022. 


Oil prices fell sharply on Tuesday, down more than 4 percent as the U.S. rig count shot up at the end of last week. Ongoing fears about economic turmoil in Europe are also weighing on WTI and Brent. An assessment from Genscape also predicted that oil inventories increased in Cushing, a bearish sign that excess supply remains. $50 oil remains elusive once again, after a brief period of time above that threshold in June. 

U.S. has more oil reserves than Saudi Arabia. A new assessment from Oslo-based Rystad Energy finds that the United States has the world’s largest oil reserves, not Saudi Arabia or Venezuela. The U.S. is sitting on an estimated 264 billion barrels of reserves, compared to Russia’s 256 billion barrels, and Saudi Arabia’s 212 billion barrels. More than half of the U.S. reserves are located in shale. Venezuela is commonly thought to have the world’s largest reserves, but Rystad says that much of that is not discovered. 

Venezuela pays bond holders as country falls apart. Venezuela’s economy is melting down, but the government has prioritized meeting bond payments even as food riots spread across the country and medical supplies and other basic items run dangerously low. Bloomberg notes that in the recent past, other countries have defaulted on bond payments long before the crisis has blown up to the extent it has in Venezuela. The situation is curious, especially for a socialist government. But a much bigger test looms later this year when larger debt payments fall due. Between the sovereign and the state-owned PDVSA, a combined $5.8 billion in debt payments will fall due in the second half of 2016. As Barclays noted in a recent research note, there are very large downside risks to Venezuela’s oil production – with several hundred thousand barrels per day of output at stake. 

U.S. shale drillers increase hedging. Oil prices are rising, and shale drillers are increasingly choosing to lock in production. According to a Reuters survey, 17 out of 30 companies increased their hedging in the first quarter, the most since early 2015. EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG) and Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN), for example, obtained hedges for the first time in six months. An uptick in hedging activity typically suggests that more drilling is sure to follow. But as Reuters notes, one interesting aspect of the hedging is that some producers even locked in hedges at lower prices than what currently prevails in the market, and even at prices lower than breakeven levels. That highlights the fear that prices could crash again, but also the desire for certainty. 

Vitol sees oil prices remaining flat through 2017. The CEO of Vitol Group, the world’s largest independent oil-trading house, does not see oil prices rising much more than today’s levels for the next year and a half. “I cannot see the market really roaring ahead,” Vitol Group CEO Ian Taylor told Bloomberg TV. Taylor sees Brent only rising to about $60 per barrel by the end of next year. He sees weak demand, particularly from China, plus elevated storage levels of both crude oil and refined products. Meanwhile, the supply disruptions in places like Nigeria and Canada are likely temporary. 

Niger Delta attacks return. After nearly a three-week hiatus, the Niger Delta Avengers have resumed attacks on the oil industry in Nigeria. Oil prices rose in recent months, in part because of huge supply outages in Nigeria. Estimates vary, but Nigeria lost somewhere around 700,000 to 900,000 barrels per day because of supply outages in recent months. However, after a ceasefire, pipelines and oil wells saw repairs, and Nigeria managed to bring back nearly 500,000 barrels per day, with hopes of a return to full capacity of 2.2 million barrels per day in July. But the Avengers struck two oil sells owned by Chevron (NYSE: CVX) over the weekend, and also pulled off three attacks against pipelines owned by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation. Oil prices recently sank as Nigeria brought supply back, but the new round of attacks will put upward pressure on prices. 

Rival Libyan oil companies merge. The rival oil companies in eastern and western Libya have decided to merge, a major political breakthrough that could see Libyan oil return to the market. Libya’s oil production was below 400,000 barrels per day in May, and has hovered around that level for more than a year. Before the civil war began in 2011, Libya was producing 1.6 million barrels per day. Political reconciliation could bring some output back, and Libyan officials have said that output could double in a short period of time.

Unsubsidized solar competitive with natural gas. A new report from Greentech Media found that solar power, even without subsidies, can be cost-competitive with natural gas-fired power plants in the United States. Unsubsidized utility-scale solar projects cost $50 to $70 per megawatt-hour compared with the $52 to $78 for the most efficient natural gas power plant. And for the first time on record, solar is expected to account for the most electricity added to the U.S. power grid, more than any other energy source. 
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​New Niger Delta Attack Claims Two Lives


A group of unidentified Nigerian militants attacked a boat transporting Eni oilfield workers in the Nembe area of the Niger Delta on Sunday, a spokesperson for Eni said. The attack reportedly left two people dead.

​The workers were traveling to a well for a “routine operation.” Three members of the group escaped to a flow station. The bodies of the other two workers were found two days later. The attack occurred on June 29, and no group claimed responsibility. The Eni spokesperson said that investigations with local “Security Agencies” are continuing.

There have been some reports in Nigerian media that the attack was staged by the Niger Delta Avengers. However, the Avengers are known for attacking wells, pipelines and facilities, but not for killing people. The group has claimed responsibility for attacks in the past through its webpage and through Twitter.
The NDA’s Twitter account was disabled Monday after the group claimed responsibility for five attacks on facilities owned by Chevron, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), and the Nigerian Production Development Company (NPDC), from Friday to Sunday. The NDA blew up two manifolds belonging to the NPDC in the Batan Community in the Warri South West Council Area of Delta State on Monday night. The Avengers also launched attacks on trunk lines that are operated by the NNPC. The NDA also targeted Chevron’s “well 10” at the Makaraba village of Gbaramatu Kingdom.

2016 has seen an increase in attacks on oil facilities in the Niger Delta. Some have attributed the attacks to a combination of heightened tension in the political arena and low prices. Bergen Risk Solutions, a Norwegian risk analysis firm states that there have been 65 incidents in the region this year. In 2015, the firm says, the attacks totaled 42.

The upswing in the attacks cut the crude oil output of Nigeria to a near thirty-year low earlier this year.
 

​Big Oil Could Spark A Renaissance In U.S. Shale

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However, spending on oil fields between 30 million and 1 billion barrels increased by 15 and 16 percent each year. Moreover, spending on these smaller fields will grow by 12.5 percent per year through the rest of the decade, double the rate of investment in the mega oil fields.

The collapse of oil prices has killed off any appetite that the oil industry had for megaprojects that cost tens of billions of dollars. With scarce resources, oil companies have shifted their focus, pouring resources into short-cycle projects, which often means shale drilling.

Liam Denning over at Bloomberg Gadfly put some numbers to the phenomenon, using data from Oslo-based Rystad Energy. The data is revealing, painting a portrait of an industry that has scaled down the size of new oil projects. Intriguingly, the focus on smaller oil fields began before the plunge in oil prices, although the price crash is accelerating that trend.

Spending on oil fields that hold more than 1 billion barrels of reserves rose by 12.5 percent annually between 2000 and 2014. However, spending on oil fields between 30 million and 1 billion barrels increased by 15 and 16 percent each year. Moreover, spending on these smaller fields will grow by 12.5 percent per year through the rest of the decade, double the rate of investment in the mega oil fields.

There are several reasons that the oil industry have shifted resources into smaller oil plays. One is that there just are not that many massive oil fields left to develop that are not under national control. Also, with so many megaprojects suffering from cost inflation, delays, and technical problems, they are no longer attractive to either oil executives or their shareholders. Just a few days ago Chevron said that it was forced to once again temporarily shutter its gargantuan $54 billion Gorgon LNG export facility in Australia because of more equipment problems. That is not the first time that the facility had to be idled since starting up operations earlier this year. And that came after the project was years overdue and billions of dollars over budget.

Another reason that oil investment has backed out of megaprojects is the rise of shale drilling, which opened up a tidal wave of investment into smaller fields. Low oil prices will likely ensure this trend continues. Arctic drilling is now off the table in most parts of the world aside from a few exceptions; deepwater projects will likely be deferred for several years; and expensive forms of oil such as oil sands will also see investment dry up.

Of course, shale drilling has its own set of problems, not the least of which is the very steep decline rates and high breakeven costs. But there is a potential unfolding development in the shale patch could result in improved economics. Reuters found that the shale industry is succeeding in slowing the dramatic initial decline rates from shale wells. “The trend, if sustained, would help ameliorate the industry’s most glaring weakness and cement its importance for worldwide production in years to come,” Reuters says.

The Reuters analysis found that wells in the Permian Basin in West Texas had decline rates of 18 percent between their point of peak production and the fourth month of operation. That decline rate may seem substantial when compared to conventional wells, but it is way down from 2012 when Permian wells suffered from a 31 percent decline rate over the same period. More staggering were the decline rates in early stages of the shale revolution a decade ago, which saw output decline by upwards of 90 percent in just a few months.

A more modest drop off in output will put a lot of marginal wells into profitable territory. It also means that shale drillers can cycle cash more quickly. "You can have cash flow without having to expend a lot of capital,” Mukul Sharma, a professor of petroleum engineering at the University of Texas at Austin, told Reuters.

Drillers seem to be able to slow decline rates by keeping up high surface pressure, which slows initial production but extends the life of the well, ultimately leading to more overall output. Years ago, companies did the reverse – squeezing out as much oil as possible in the first few weeks, which ended up leading to sharp decline rates and less oil recovered in total.

In short, shale companies continue to tweak drilling practices, which should improve well economics. That will ensure that fracking shale wells continues to see more interest from oil companies than the megaprojects of years past.
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​OPEC Needs 650,000 bpd To Avoid Global Supply Deficit

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But if Venezuela cannot pay the companies, oil production will take a hit. While Barclays says that a loss of around 250,000 barrels per day is possible, a much sharper drop off is also conceivable. In the bank’s worst-case scenario, Venezuela’s oil production could plummet to 1.7 mb/d by the end of 2016, or a plunge of more than 600,000 barrels per day.

​Oil prices rose again on Wednesday, as fears over the fallout from the Brexit continued to abate. But some potential supply outages also added positive momentum to crude oil.

A potential strike of oil workers threatens oil production in Norway in the coming days. Oil worker unions set a deadline for Friday, July 1 for their wage demands to be met. If negotiations don’t conclude successfully by then, about 7,500 workers will initiate a strike beginning on Saturday. Reuters estimates the strike could affect about one fifth of Norway’s 1.6 million barrels of daily (mb/d) oil production, or just under 300,000 barrels per day. A 2012 strike in Norway temporarily knocked off about 13 percent of the country’s oil production.

Another supply disruption is looming in Venezuela, although this one would be much longer lasting and more difficult to reverse. Oil production has been declining for years in Venezuela, but a more acute outage could be coming this year due to the country’s economic crisis. The Venezuelan government and its state-owned oil company PDVSA are quickly running out of cash, falling into arrears to international companies that help produce oil in the country. Barclays estimates that Venezuela’s oil production could fall by 11 percent this year to 2.1 mb/d.

A default looms in the fourth quarter of this year as $4 billion in debt payments fall due for PDVSA. Moody’s wrote earlier this month that the state-owned company is “highly unlikely” to have enough resources to meet that payment. The Venezuelan government has long placed a high priority on meeting debt payments in order not to run afoul of the bond markets. “The situation is becoming more and more difficult for oil services in Venezuela,” Baptiste Lebacq, an analyst at Natixis SA, told Bloomberg.

A default by PDVSA would push the state closer to the brink, and ultimately would probably tip it over into default as well. Looking at credit-default swaps, the market is projecting a 60 percent probability of a default in the next year, according to Bloomberg.

The fiscal calamity likely means that oilfield service companies will go unpaid. Schlumberger has already cut back on operations in Venezuela because PDVSA has failed to pay the company $1.2 billion that it is owed. PDVSA also owes Halliburton about $756 million. “They have been operating in the country for more than 100 years,” Venezuela’s oil minister Eulogio Del Pino said, trying to put a brave face on the problem. “They are not going to leave.”

But if Venezuela cannot pay the companies, oil production will take a hit. While Barclays says that a loss of around 250,000 barrels per day is possible, a much sharper drop off is also conceivable. In the bank’s worst-case scenario, Venezuela’s oil production could plummet to 1.7 mb/d by the end of 2016, or a plunge of more than 600,000 barrels per day.

Bloomberg estimates that OPEC will need to come up with an additional 650,000 barrels per day if the oil market is to avoid a supply surplus flipping to a deficit. Outages in Venezuela, combined with ongoing disruptions in Libya and Nigeria are going a long way to erasing the surplus.

Still, it is important to note that the outages are not a given. Moreover, Nigeria is already working to bring back some lost production. Repairs and restarts to damaged infrastructure has allowed Nigeria to boost output from 1.3 mb/d to 1.9 mb/d.
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And although Venezuela presents a huge risk to global supplies, the market is not exactly tight just yet. According to the EIA’s administrator Adam Sieminski, there is “still too much supply.” He told Bloomberg Surveillance on June 27 that although the surplus is shrinking, there is still some time left before we reach a balance. “We are at least a half a million barrels per day over what demand is. That means inventories are still building slightly,” he said. But he also said things are trending in the right direction. “But this is just on the cusp of changing. In about another two quarters we are going to see those supply and demand lines cross, inventories will start to draw, and that’s probably going to support prices in the market.”
 
 
Source:  Oil Price
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